100×worker · analysis

Which jobs will AI replace?

Almost no job disappears whole. What the data shows instead: per occupation, a measurable share of tasks shifts to AI. Microsoft Research analyzed 200,000 real AI conversations and found interpreters and translators at the top (49% of work activities exposed), with nurses and hands-on medical roles at the bottom. The real question is which of your tasks shift, and who runs that shift.

In 2025 Microsoft Research published the most grounded answer available to this question. Instead of asking experts to speculate, they took 200,000 real Copilot conversations and mapped what people actually asked AI to do against the official work-activity lists of 786 occupations. The result is an "AI applicability score" per occupation: the share of its work activities where generative AI is demonstrably usable today. Anthropic's Economic Index, built on millions of Claude conversations, points the same way.

Both datasets agree on the core finding: AI lands on tasks, not on jobs. A job survives as long as part of its bundle stays human (accountability, trust, physical work, hard conversations). What changes is the ratio of executing to directing and reviewing.

The 30 most exposed occupations (Microsoft Research, 2025)

# Occupation AI applicability
1 Interpreters and Translators 49% Task breakdown
2 Historians 46%
3 Writers and Authors 45% Task breakdown
4 Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel 45%
5 Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers 42%
6 Broadcast Announcers and Radio Disc Jockeys 41%
7 Customer Service Representatives 41% Task breakdown
8 Telemarketers 40%
9 Political Scientists 39%
10 Mathematicians 39%
11 News Analysts, Reporters, and Journalists 38%
12 Passenger Attendants 38%
13 Technical Writers 37%
14 Concierges 37%
15 Proofreaders and Copy Markers 37%
16 Editors 37%
17 Business Teachers, Postsecondary 37%
18 Public Relations Specialists 37%
19 Data Scientists 36%
20 Personal Financial Advisors 36% Task breakdown
21 Web Developers 35%
22 Advertising Sales Agents 35%
23 Management Analysts 35% Task breakdown
24 Geographers 35%
25 Brokerage Clerks 35%
26 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 35% Task breakdown
27 Economics Teachers, Postsecondary 35%
28 Public Safety Telecommunicators 35%
29 Counter and Rental Clerks 34%
30 Telephone Operators 34%

The 15 least exposed occupations

# Occupation AI applicability
1 Dredge Operators 0%
2 Bridge and Lock Tenders 0%
3 Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators 0%
4 Foundry Mold and Coremakers 0%
5 Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators 0%
6 Pile Driver Operators 0%
7 Floor Sanders and Finishers 0%
8 Orderlies 0%
9 Motorboat Operators 0%
10 Logging Equipment Operators 1%
11 Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators 1%
12 Ophthalmic Medical Technicians 1%
13 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1%
14 Roustabouts, Oil and Gas 1%
15 First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers 1%

Source: Microsoft Research, "Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations" (2025), data public under CC BY 4.0 at github.com/microsoft/working-with-ai. The score measures task exposure, not job-loss probability.

Jobs we have analyzed task by task

For these occupations we went one level deeper: every task sorted into eliminate, automate, delegate, or keep, with the moves that make you the person who runs AI on your team.

Why "replace" is the wrong frame

An interpreter scores 49% and a registered nurse 12% for one reason: translation is almost entirely language work, which is exactly what large language models do, while nursing is mostly physical care and human contact. Both jobs will exist in ten years. Only the translator's work week will look fundamentally different, with AI producing first drafts and the human doing quality, nuance, and accountability.

That is the pattern across all 786 occupations: the score predicts how much of your week changes, never whether you are needed. The people at risk are those who keep executing tasks AI already does well. The people who gain are those who learn to direct, review, and improve AI work first. Our per-job analyses show what that means concretely, and the free task scan maps it for your specific role.

Frequently asked questions

Which jobs will AI replace?

Very few in their entirety. AI takes over tasks, not occupations. Language- and information-heavy roles see the largest share of their task list shift; physical and relational work the least.

What does the AI applicability score measure?

The share of an occupation's work activities where generative AI is demonstrably usable today, measured from real Copilot usage. Task exposure, not job-loss probability.

What should I do if my job scores high?

Map your own week, sort each task into eliminate, automate, delegate, or keep, and build an AI working method for the middle two. Being first at this makes you more valuable, not less.

Where does your job stand?

The free scan builds your personal task map in 30 seconds, based on your role and industry.

Run the free task scan